As the green light approaches for the final four rounds of the WRC 2026 season, one name is on everyone's lips: Sami Pajari. The Finnish Toyota driver arrives in Paraguay in the hottest form of anyone in the field. Back-to-back wins in Estonia and Finland—his first two WRC victories—have catapulted him to second in the championship on 171 points, just 30 behind leader Elfyn Evans.
More than just numbers, Pajari's momentum suits Paraguay's character. The fast, flowing red-earth gravel can deteriorate badly, developing ruts and exposed rocks. That combination rewards a driver who is both quick and increasingly confident on gravel—and Pajari clearly fits that bill.
My podium prediction for Paraguay: 1. Sami Pajari (Toyota), 2. Sebastien Ogier (Toyota), 3. Elfyn Evans (Toyota). The dark horse is Adrien Fourmaux. Hyundai has had a frustrating run of results despite showing pace, but Fourmaux finished fourth in Finland and has already demonstrated strong gravel speed this year. Hyundai itself expects Paraguay to be an opportunity to turn that pace into podiums.
Interestingly, Ogier has a special record in Paraguay: he won the inaugural Rally del Paraguay in 2025. That's strong evidence he knows how to conquer the terrain. However, he's returning after his Finland accident, making him harder to assess.
If Pajari wins Paraguay, I'd actually switch my pick for Chile to Takamoto Katsuta. The Japanese driver has already won twice this season (Kenya and Croatia) and sits third in the championship on 160 points. Chile's smooth, fast, flowing gravel is exactly the type of surface that rewards precision and confidence—qualities Katsuta possesses. The event has earned a reputation as a 'driver's rally'.
The scenario: if Pajari wins Paraguay, he would arrive in Chile having won three straight rallies. That sounds like an advantage, but he'd also carry a lot of momentum and expectation. I'd still give a slight edge to Katsuta on a rally where consistency and commitment matter. My predicted Chile podium: 1. Katsuta, 2. Pajari, 3. Evans.
One major spoiler: Ogier. Despite missing Sweden and Finland, he's only 21 points behind Katsuta and has already won two rallies this season. If this scenario plays out, the championship will be absolutely wild going into Sardegna. The key thing to watch is how Pajari handles the road-opening role in Paraguay—he'll start second on the road. If he dominates despite that disadvantage, I'd be much more inclined to make him my Chile pick too.
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