Bagnaia: Latest Results Can Decide a Rider’s Fate

MotoGP, Sportrik Media - Francesco Bagnaia has acknowledged that a MotoGP rider’s reputation is defined almost entirely by their most recent results, even if that reality leaves him potentially undervalued as the 2027 rider market begins to take shape.

Bagnaia’s latest campaign was marked by inconsistency. While new team-mate Marc Marquez dominated the season en route to the world championship, Bagnaia endured a year of sharp peaks and deep troughs. Despite claiming three victories across the final 14 races, he scored points in just one of the remaining events, ultimately slipping to fifth in the championship standings.

That late-season downturn has inevitably shaped perceptions in the paddock, particularly as teams look ahead to the 850cc era beginning in 2027. In modern MotoGP, contract negotiations increasingly prioritise recent form over longer-term achievement, a trend Bagnaia accepts, even if it works against him.

Encouragingly for the Italian, signs of a resurgence emerged at the Sepang MotoGP Test. Bagnaia appeared far more comfortable on the revised Ducati GP26, delivering a Sprint simulation that was quicker than Marquez’s and only marginally slower than Alex Marquez. The performance suggested that his underlying speed remains intact.

However, timing may prove critical. KTM star Pedro Acosta has already been heavily linked with replacing Bagnaia in Ducati’s factory line-up for the upcoming regulation change. If decisions are finalised early, Bagnaia may not have sufficient opportunity to prove that 2025 was an anomaly rather than a decline.

“We are still speaking, but it’s clear that a season like last year can put you on the wrong side of contract negotiations,” Bagnaia said of his future. “But we are still speaking. I have many opportunities, and we just need to decide.”

The broader rider market adds further complexity. Fabio Quartararo has been widely reported as a potential future Honda rider, while reigning champion Jorge Martin has been linked to Quartararo’s seat at Yamaha. These potential moves could trigger a chain reaction across the grid.

Within that context, Bagnaia has emerged as a possible target for Aprilia, Ducati’s closest challenger last season. The interest underlines that his value within the paddock remains high, even if his most recent results have weakened his negotiating position at Ducati.

Bagnaia accepts that the accelerated pace of modern MotoGP leaves little room for patience. Contract decisions are increasingly made before a season has even begun, shifting the balance of power towards short-term momentum.

“It is what it is,” Bagnaia said of 2027 deals being discussed ahead of the 2026 campaign. “We are living in a world that is always super-fast, so you need to be quick.”

He referenced former champion Jorge Lorenzo when explaining the mindset that now dominates the paddock. “Jorge Lorenzo said a correct thing: you are always remembered for the last races you do. So it’s normal that it is like this.”

“For sure, in the last three or four years, contracts have been decided much earlier,” Bagnaia added. “But it’s like this, and honestly, I think it’s correct.”

Bagnaia’s comments reflect a broader truth in MotoGP’s current landscape, where perception often outweighs context and recent performance can eclipse years of success. For a multiple race winner and former champion, the challenge now is to ensure that his next set of results reshapes that perception.

The first opportunity to do so arrives at the opening round of the MotoGP 2026 season in Thailand, running from February 27 to March 1. With the rider market already moving at speed, Bagnaia’s early-season performances may prove decisive not only for his championship ambitions, but also for determining where his future lies beyond Ducati.