Former Alpine team principal Otmar Szafnauer believes Lando Norris and McLaren will emerge as Mercedes' closest rival by the end of the 2026 Formula 1 season. Speaking on the High Performance Racing podcast, Szafnauer assessed the shifting competitive order after Norris's back-to-back wins in Hungary and the Netherlands.
McLaren has introduced major upgrades at recent races, and with the package now fully integrated ahead of the Italian Grand Prix at Monza, Szafnauer expects the Woking squad to overtake Ferrari in the constructors' championship and become a real threat to Mercedes.
"Monza will be very important because they brought an upgrade that worked in Hungary. I think they continued with it in Zandvoort, and now it's complete," Szafnauer explained. "I still think they're going to be Mercedes' closest competitor at the end of the season. It's ebbing and flowing because upgrades don't arrive at the same time, and they are significant."
He highlighted the steep learning curve in a new regulation year. "When you bring that upgrade relative to those who haven't, you make a step. We saw that with Alpine and Racing Bulls," he added.
On Mercedes' spaced-out upgrade schedule, Szafnauer pointed to the cost cap. "They have upgrades now, but once you start making parts, it costs and they'll go over the cap. My guess is one more big upgrade in Malaysia/Singapore timeframe," he said.
With McLaren's momentum, the battle at the front is set to intensify, and the end of 2026 promises a thrilling showdown.
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