Lando Norris Warns Mercedes as Ferrari Emerges Monaco Favourite

Lando Norris believes Ferrari could pose the biggest threat to Mercedes at next weekend’s Monaco Grand Prix, despite the Silver Arrows dominating the opening phase of the 2026 Formula 1 season.

Mercedes has won all five grands prix so far this year, with Kimi Antonelli securing four victories to establish a commanding 43-point lead over team-mate George Russell in the drivers’ championship. The Brackley-based squad has also consistently locked out pole positions, underlining the strength of the W17 package under the new regulations.

However, Norris believes Monaco’s unique characteristics could disrupt the current competitive order. According to the McLaren driver, Ferrari’s advantage in low-speed corners may prove decisive around the narrow streets of Monte Carlo.

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"Monaco was also a track that was decent for us last year. Honestly, I think Ferrari will be on pole next weekend in Monaco. Their low-speed performance is far better than everyone else," Norris told media including RacingNews365.

Ferrari’s recent progress has become increasingly visible over the last few rounds, particularly in traction performance and mechanical grip through slower sections. Those strengths are considered critical at Monaco, where qualifying pace and low-speed corner rotation typically outweigh straight-line speed advantages.

The Italian team also arrives in Monaco carrying positive momentum after Lewis Hamilton secured a podium finish in Canada. Meanwhile, Charles Leclerc remains one of Formula 1’s strongest street-circuit specialists despite enduring a difficult weekend in Montreal. Combined with the characteristics of the SF-26, Ferrari is increasingly viewed as a genuine contender for pole position.

For Norris, Monaco remains a particularly significant venue after he claimed one of the defining victories of his title-winning 2025 campaign there last season. Nevertheless, the McLaren driver remains cautious regarding his team’s own prospects heading into the event.

"I look forward to Monaco because it's Monaco. I had one of my best weekends there last year. But in the areas where we know we are still struggling, it doesn't give me the confidence to say we're going to be incredible," Norris explained.

McLaren continues to evaluate the full impact of its latest upgrade package introduced across recent races. The Woking-based team brought several aerodynamic developments earlier this season, but Norris suggested a clearer understanding of McLaren’s true performance level may only emerge at the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona.

"We're still encouraged because there is clearly more performance to unlock. Canada was a very unusual circuit and Monaco is another unique track. Barcelona will probably give us the clearest indication of where we really stand," he added.

From a technical perspective, Monaco remains one of Formula 1’s most specialised challenges. Maximum downforce, strong mechanical grip, tyre preparation, and confidence over kerbs play a far greater role than outright power output. Those variables could create the perfect conditions for Ferrari to challenge Mercedes’ winning streak.

If Norris’ prediction proves accurate, the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix could become a pivotal turning point in the championship battle and provide the first serious disruption to Mercedes’ dominance under Formula 1’s new generation regulations.