WRC Sweden 2026: Takamoto Katsuta Loses Ground as Fine Margins Shift Rally Lead

WRC Sweden 2026, Sportrik Media – Takamoto Katsuta experienced how marginal details can reshape an entire rally after his slender Friday advantage turned into a 13.8-second deficit by the end of Saturday’s action.

The Toyota driver had led Rally Sweden by just 2.8 seconds after Friday’s stages, holding a narrow edge over team-mate Elfyn Evans. However, the Saturday morning loop proved decisive. On Sarsjöliden, Katsuta was the slowest Rally1 car apart from privateer Lorenzo Bertelli. On Vännäs and Kolksele, he was again the slowest Toyota among the factory entries.

The sudden loss of pace was not attributed to a confidence issue but rather to a subtle technical irregularity involving his tyres.

“It was not a lack of confidence,” Katsuta explained. “It was a lack of grip.”

Rally Sweden’s studded tyres are specifically designed for snow and ice conditions. Typically, drivers lose two to three studs per tyre during a loop due to the gravel base beneath the ice. Each tyre leaves service with 384 studs, and complete retention is virtually impossible under competitive conditions.

In Katsuta’s case, however, his left-rear tyre reportedly lost approximately nine to ten studs, according to data from supplier Hankook. While this represents only around 2.6 percent of the total studs, even a marginal reduction in grip can influence stability and traction on high-speed icy stages.

“Basically, they are now trying to find out what happened,” Katsuta said. “Obviously something was wrong with one tyre and some studs were gone. I don’t know why.”

The key question is whether the stud loss alone explains the 18.9 seconds he conceded across the first Saturday loop. Toyota team principal Jari-Matti Latvala suggested that the impact may have extended beyond pure mechanical grip and into the psychological domain.

“He was thinking about it maybe too much,” Latvala commented. “Sometimes when you go very deep into your mind about something, it can affect your performance even more. But this afternoon he came back strongly and it was great to see those strong stage times.”

Indeed, Katsuta responded in the afternoon with improved pace, stabilising the gap. Nevertheless, with only three stages and 37.9 competitive miles remaining, the opportunity to close down Evans has narrowed significantly.

Latvala cautioned against assuming the outcome is sealed. Although a 13-second margin is substantial on Sweden’s fast winter roads, rallying remains vulnerable to small errors.

“He’s still in touching distance of Elfyn,” Latvala said. “Of course, 13 seconds is a lot to catch by driving alone, but Elfyn also needs to complete the stages without mistakes.”

A single spin or misjudged braking point on ice could immediately reset the contest. The evolving surface conditions — particularly in second passes where ruts deepen and grip levels fluctuate — continue to present variables for both drivers.

The situation underlines how Rally Sweden is often decided by the finest of margins. The loss of a handful of studs, combined with the mental weight of an unexpected anomaly, proved sufficient to swing the balance of the lead within a single loop.

As the rally heads into its final leg, Katsuta must balance controlled aggression with strategic calculation. For Toyota, the internal battle between its leading drivers strengthens its overall position in both the drivers’ and manufacturers’ standings.

With just three stages remaining, the fight between Katsuta and Evans remains open — a reminder that in winter rallying, details measured in millimetres can determine outcomes decided by seconds.