Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are once again forcing Formula 1 to prepare a contingency plan. If Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are unable to host the opening round, the Chinese Grand Prix is emerging as the leading candidate to start the 2027 season.
F1 is closely monitoring the conflict between the US and Iran that erupted in February. Key decisions in the coming weeks will not only shape the final phase of this year's calendar but also determine the fate of the 2027 schedule. The initial plan is to open 2027 in Bahrain, but if conditions don't improve, an alternative must be activated.
The Middle East crisis has already forced the cancellation of this year's Bahrain and Saudi Arabian rounds. Malaysia, funded by Bahrain, steps in as a replacement in early October. The fate of the season-ending Qatar and Abu Dhabi races remains uncertain.
F1 has repeatedly said it will decide on those two races by the end of September. CEO Stefano Domenicali's comment that the calendar is "confirmed" doesn't mean a final decision has been made; it simply reflects the current intention to proceed with Qatar and Abu Dhabi. He also noted ticket sales for Abu Dhabi are going well.
If the US-Iran conflict continues past September, F1 will likely drop Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Imola could then host the season finale in December, two weeks after Las Vegas.
The situation also impacts 2027. F1 has delayed the release of the provisional calendar, making it harder for promoters to sell tickets. Normally, the next season's calendar is published during the summer. The-Race understands F1's plan A for 2027 is back-to-back races in Bahrain (March 14) and Saudi Arabia (March 21), followed by a triple header in Australia (April 4), Japan (April 11), and China (April 18).
If that can't proceed, the leading alternative is to start in China in March, followed by Japan. The reason is that the Australian Grand Prix cannot move much earlier than its provisional April slot due to ongoing pit building construction. Thus, China becomes the most logical replacement for Bahrain as the season opener.
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