The long race of the 2026 Japanese MotoGP at Motegi could be hit by rain. Weather forecasts indicate the highest risk on Sunday afternoon, with a precipitation chance slightly above 50%. Meanwhile, Friday and Saturday practice sessions are expected to be dry with partly cloudy skies and near-zero rain probability.
This is a significant note as Motegi is known as one of the most technical and challenging circuits, especially in wet conditions. Riders from the MotoGP, Moto2, and Moto3 classes must be prepared for changing conditions that could drastically alter race strategy.
Practice Sessions Weather Forecast
According to AccuWeather data, Friday (October 2) and Saturday (October 3) will be relatively safe days for riders to find their best setup. Maximum temperatures are expected to reach 23°C on Friday and 25°C on Saturday, with wind speeds of 9 km/h from the north to northeast. The chance of rain is only 3% and 2%, so free practice and qualifying sessions are predicted to run smoothly without significant weather disruptions.

However, on Sunday (October 4), the sky is forecast to turn potentially rainy. The maximum temperature drops to 21°C with winds from the southeast at 11 km/h. The chance of rain surges to 55%, raising concerns about a wet race.
Impact on Strategy and Standings
If rain does fall during the race, teams must be ready with wet setups, including tire choices and electronic adjustments. Riders like Fabio Quartararo or Francesco Bagnaia, known for their wet-weather prowess, could exploit this situation for maximum results. Conversely, for those less comfortable, the risk of crashing or losing positions becomes greater.
Motegi itself has a long history of dramatic wet races. Its sharp corners and heavy braking zones often trap careless riders. These conditions could present an opportunity for underdog teams to steal the spotlight.
With only one race held in Thailand, this Asian tour is a crucial moment for riders to collect as many points as possible. Rain at Motegi could be a significant game-changer in the 2026 world title battle.



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